In 2011, I laboriously explained the futility of third parties at the federal level in American elections, and I refer you back to that now. Back then, I was responding to an effort being promoted by Thomas “Suck on This” Friedman called “Americans Elect.” Today, that piece is relevant again because the richest man in the world has announced that he’s launching the “America Party” to compete for seats in the U.S. Congress.

Since 2011, I have considered several times how a third party might be effective at the federal level despite my continuing skepticism, and in 2022 I wrote: How to Create an Effective Third Party. At the time, I was reacting to the latest fantasy, which was former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman and Andrew Yang announcing that they were forming a new party called “Forward.” That obviously went nowhere.

But I identified how a third party could be a worthwhile effort if it kept its focus on one short-term goal. Rather than aspiring to become a real competitor to the two major parties, it could focus narrowly on willing just a few seats with the goal of being able to control who becomes either Senate Majority Leader or Speaker of the House.

I’ll quote extensively here on the example I used from the 2022 midterm cycle. At the time, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene had been stripped of her committee assignments. They have since been restored:

Evan McMullin is running as an independent in the 2022 midterms against Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah. He says that, if elected, he won’t caucus with either party. If this were true, it would be truly stupid, leading to the same kind of ineffectualness Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene suffers after having been stripped of her committee assignments. After all, caucusing with a party is about choosing a Speaker of the House or Senate Majority Leader, but that’s done after the first day. Thereafter, it’s about serving on committees where most legislation is marked up and where the administration’s nominees are vetted. There are no seats on congressional committees reserved for independents or uncommitteds. If McMullin doesn’t commit to a party, he’ll have little to do and very little direct influence on the work of the Senate.

It’s possible that McMullin will actually win because the Democrats have endorsed him. That’s not actually helpful in conservative Utah, except that the Dems aren’t running their own candidate. Republicans are mindful that a vote for McMullin is more than a vote against Sen. Lee. It’s also a vote against Mitch McConnell becoming Majority Leader again, and that’s true even if McMullin abstains and refuses to endorse Schumer or another Democrat.

But what if the midterms produce another divided Senate where McMullin is the deciding vote that determines whether the Republicans or Democrats will be in control? In that case, he could give the Democrats the choice of making him the Leader or having him hand control to McConnell.

This is the general idea. Realistically, it would be more likely to work if the third party held a handful of seats. The party members would be pledged to vote as a bloc in any leadership elections. If they were in position as majority-makers, they could insist one of their own lead the Senate or take the Speaker’s gavel in the House. That would be the maximum demand. They could also, as with majority-making minor parties in parliamentary systems, simply demand some concessions on policy or even lesser leadership positions.

The way Congress is narrowly divided in both chambers today, it’s the optimum time to attempt this strategy. It’s easy to envision midterm results that are so close in both the House and Senate that just a small handful of third party members would be in the position to determine which major party takes control.

Perhaps someone gave Musk my analysis, or maybe the logic is strong enough that he arrived at my solution on his own. But he’s following my advice:

Elon Musk said Saturday that he has formed a new political party, the “America Party,” which he claims will give Americans “back your freedom.”

“By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!” Musk wrote on X, one day after he posted a poll on the platform asking his followers if they support creating the “America Party.”

Musk, the world’s richest man, suggested Friday that the new party could focus “on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts.”

“Given the razor-thin legislative margins, that would be enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people,” Musk said Friday.

The basic problem with third parties in a winner-take-all system is that they tend to help the party they are least aligned with win. The result for a left-leaning party is a more conservative Congress, and for a right-leaning party a more liberal one. For this reason, third party candidates are self-defeating for their supporters unless they actually find some way to capture the seats they’re seeking. That’s not often possible.

But it’s more likely if the party is very selective about the seats it targets and invests a lot of money. I also identified in that 2022 piece that California is a good place to start the project because of the way they do non-party primaries. Rather than choosing a Democrat and a Republican to run against each other, the parties all run together in the primary and the two highest vote-getters compete in the general election. Sometimes this means two Democrats compete against each other, and sometimes it means two Republicans compete against each other. But it also happens that a far-left candidate will compete against a Democrat or even a moderate third-party conservative will compete against the Republican candidate. Removing the need to win a party primary and offering a two-way election for a third party candidate removes the two biggest obstacles for third party success.

In any case, Musk can be successful here in two ways. If his goal is to take revenge on Trump by denying him congressional majorities, he can definitely help accomplish that by running spoiler candidates that split the conservative vote. And if his goal is to gain influence on “contentious laws,” he can do it by actually winning just a few seats and using that to control the leadership of Congress.

For once, I have to give credit to Musk for being smart.